19学者评“大国博弈下的俄乌冲突”系列第16篇
由于对乌克兰的大规模军事入侵似乎迫在眉睫，而入侵范围和国际反应尚不清楚，这一评论将主要集中在两个问题上，而这两个问题很难得到全面解决。首先，在有关普京危机的大量文章中，中国作为俄罗斯唯一准外交伙伴的角色很少受到关注。其次，俄罗斯/乌克兰在未来几十年将如何影响全球政治经济，尤其是中国和美国这两个全球经济的主要领导者之间的关系。中国外交正面临着严峻的挑战，一方面，中国是事实上唯一一个支持莫斯科澄清北约有安全威胁，以及有可能承认俄罗斯占领乌克兰的大国。然而，中国又将不涉及军事的支持。中国还没有承认俄罗斯吞并克里米亚的事实，也希望不要再发生战争。中国是基辅在农业方面最大的贸易伙伴(例如，10万英亩土地的50年租约)；也竞标收购马达西奇Motop Sich大型航空公司，乌克兰为了防止其被收购，已经将其国有化。
矛盾的是，如果俄罗斯打赢了战争，中国经济就会受益。因为为了让普京退出，美国及其盟友不太可能单独实施对俄罗斯的经济制裁。这将使中国能够提供杠杆贷款，并加强与俄罗斯的贸易(甚至可能像乌克兰那样加入中国的“一带一路”倡议)。简而言之，加强双边经济关系可以补充中俄已经更加密切的政治/军事双边关系，这却会让发展管理全球化世界所必需的多边新机构变得困难。俄罗斯在乌克兰的胜利将引发最严重的国际动荡，如果中国以此为契机用武力收复台湾，将引发美国对中国实施类似美国对俄罗斯采取的经济制裁。反过来，这将破坏中国“一带一路”倡议成功的可能性，并严重扰乱全球经济。
以下为英文原文：
In the wake of a Russian Ukraine
Professor Emeritus Donald C. Hellmann, University of Washington
Because a major military invasion of Ukraine seems imminent and the scope and international response unclear, this comment will focus mainly on two points, that have rarely been fully addressed. Firstly, In the flood of articles about Putin’s crisis, the primary focus is rarely on China’s role as the only quasi diplomatic partner of Russia.
Secondly, how is the global political economy shaped by Russia / Ukraine in the next several decades, notably regarding relations between, China and the United States, the two dominant economic global leaders? China has a severe diplomatic challenge supporting on the one hand, de facto, it is the only major power supporting Moscow on the clarification posed by the security threat of NATO – and the possible admission of Ukraine.
However, this will not involve military support. Beijing has yet to recognize Russia’sannexation of Crimea and wishes that the imminent war would not happen. China is the largest trading partner of Kyiv in agriculture (e.g., 50 years lease on100,000 acres), and there bid to buy Motop Sich, a large aerospace company that was blocked and nationalized by the Ukraine government).
Paradoxically, Russia winning the war would therefore benefit China’s economy. Moreover, the economic sanctions the US and its allies will impose are highly unlikely alone to lead to Putin withdrawing. This would allow Beijing to provide leveraged loans and enhanced trade to Russia (perhaps even to join China’s “Belt and Road initiative” as Ukraine already has done). In short, enhanced bilateral economic relations could supplement the already closer political/military bilateral relations making it harder to develop the multilateral new institutions necessary to manage the globalized world.
The most serious international instability flowing from Russia’s triumph in Ukraine would happen if China chose this as a time to militarily retake Taiwan, this would lead to similar economic sanctions imposed against Russia. In turn, this would devastate the possibility of a successful “Belt and Road initiative” by China and badly disrupt the global economy.