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19学者评“大国博弈下的俄乌冲突”系列第16篇 由于对乌克兰的大规模军事入侵似乎迫在眉睫，而入侵范围和国际反应尚不清楚，这一评论将主要集中在两个问题上，而这两个问题很难得到全面解决。首先，在有关普京危机的大量文章中，中国作为俄罗斯唯一准外交伙伴的角色很少受到关注。其次，俄罗斯/乌克兰在未来几十年将如何影响全球政治经济，尤其是中国和美国这两个全球经济的主要领导者之间的关系。中国外交正面临着严峻的挑战，一方面，中国是事实上唯一一个支持莫斯科澄清北约有安全威胁，以及有可能承认俄罗斯占领乌克兰的大国。然而，中国又将不涉及军事的支持。中国还没有承认俄罗斯吞并克里米亚的事实，也希望不要再发生战争。中国是基辅在农业方面最大的贸易伙伴(例如，10万英亩土地的50年租约)；也竞标收购马达西奇Motop Sich大型航空公司，乌克兰为了防止其被收购，已经将其国有化。 矛盾的是，如果俄罗斯打赢了战争，中国经济就会受益。因为为了让普京退出，美国及其盟友不太可能单独实施对俄罗斯的经济制裁。这将使中国能够提供杠杆贷款，并加强与俄罗斯的贸易(甚至可能像乌克兰那样加入中国的“一带一路”倡议)。简而言之，加强双边经济关系可以补充中俄已经更加密切的政治/军事双边关系，这却会让发展管理全球化世界所必需的多边新机构变得困难。俄罗斯在乌克兰的胜利将引发最严重的国际动荡，如果中国以此为契机用武力收复台湾，将引发美国对中国实施类似美国对俄罗斯采取的经济制裁。反过来，这将破坏中国“一带一路”倡议成功的可能性，并严重扰乱全球经济。 以下为英文原文： In the wake of a Russian Ukraine Professor Emeritus Donald C. Hellmann, University of Washington Because a major military invasion of Ukraine seems imminent and the scope and international response unclear, this comment will focus mainly on two points, that have rarely been fully addressed. Firstly, In the flood of…

The trade war between the United States and China launched by President Donald Trump has been escalating in recent weeks with Trump threatening to raise tariffs on all Chinese imports and declaring a national emergency shutting Huawei out of the U.S. market. Observers of U.S.-China relations have become increasingly concerned about the future of this most…

In mid-April, the New York Times reported that U.S. officials had denied or restricted visas for some 30 international relations experts from China. Beijing has restricted visas for some American scholars as well, including a high-profile informal advisor to President Trump. What’s going on with these sudden restrictions on academics? And what do they mean for U.S.-China relations? Here…

In 1992, representatives from the People’s Republic of China (PRC or Chinese mainland) and the Republic of China (ROC or Taiwan) met in Hong Kong and devised an understanding whereby both governments could sidestep sensitive sovereignty questions related to “China” and move relations forward. In essence, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait agreed that…

After his June 2018 summit in Singapore with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, President Donald Trump declared that North Korea no longer presented a nuclear threat. Denuclearization of North Korea seemed within grasp. But by the time Trump abruptly canceled Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s planned trip to Pyongyang in late August, citing lack of progress in denuclearization,…

5 Policy Debates in Japan in the Background of Power Politics The arguments concerning Japanese foreign policy reflect changes in Japan’s domestic politics, as well as the competitions among great powers. The mainstream Japanese foreign policies are moderate, but yet have some subtle intentions. From such policies we can see not only the conflicts between…

Abstract This paper will take a closer look at where Japanese foreign policy made three remarkably orientational changes at the historical crossroads of the Meiji restoration in 1868, American occupation in 1945–1952, and in the post-cold war era of the 1990s. During the postcold war era, there arose prolonged policy debates where political elites in…

Transcript EDDIE CONWAY: There’s been a lot of activity in economic development between China and Africa recently, and there’s not enough information about it. I thought I would check with a professor to find out exactly what’s going on. So, joining me today is Dr. Zhiqun Zhu. He’s a professor of political science and international relations…